|February - March 2002
"New Buy Recommendations:
Kicking Horse Resources - Westwood Corp."
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2274 Arbor Lane #3
Salt Lake City, Utah 84117
|NEW BUY RECOMMENDATIONS|
|(KHL.V) Kicking Horse Resources - US $.40|
Every year we are invited to participate in Dick Davis Digest Stock Pick of the Year. This year we have decided to concentrate on two stocks that we feel have huge upside potential during the next 12 months. Last year's selection was Allied Oil & Gas (recommended AOG.TO @ CD$.98 ). It was bought out at CD$2.65 during November 01. If you consider the current market environment, our results are quite impressive.
We remain very bullish towards Western Canadian oil and gas producers regardless of the dramatically reduced price for oil and gas. When one considers the current state of our world, it is prudent in our opinion to have ample exposure to oil and gas because one never knows when the Middle East fanatics will decide to cause havoc throughout the world, which can cause dramatic price swings with respect to oil and gas pricing.
We like Canadian oil and gas companies for three main reasons: 1. drilling in Canadian dollars and the resources are usually priced in dollars (big conversion benefit); 2. opportunities for exploration and development is much greater and there are huge oil and gas reserves still untapped; and 3. CF (cash flow) and PE (price to earnings) multiples are historically very low and actually curb our downside risk even more so than usual. Most of the O & G management teams that we have had conversation with have demonstrated refreshing professionalism with a "no hype" approach that we favor over the usual Canadian promotion.
Our major selection for Stock Pick of the year for 02 within the microcap division is Kicking Horse Resources (KHL.V - trades on the Canadian Exchange), an emerging junior oil and gas exploration and production company with its primary focus on oil and gas development in Western Canada. The current price is US $.40 or CD $.65 per share. (NOTE: All values within this recommendation have been converted to US Dollars. We have not been paid for this recommendation either.)
KHL.V is a Calgary based junior O & G company. Their auditor is Ernst & Young and their engineering consultants are Ashton Jenkins Mann.
We have communicated many times with management concerning the main objective of KHL.V and believe that within 18 to 24 months this emerging junior O & G company will be sold to an active O & G Royalty Trust in Canada for at least 400% to 500% above its current stated share price. Past history has demonstrated successful building and sales of other oil and gas concerns.
We became interested in KHL.V when we had heard about the "Leduc" acquisition that was pending. This acquisition will in reality increase production/day (Boe/d) from 1400 to 5600 (based on a 6/1 conversation)
According to management revenue for 01 (without acquisition) will equal around US $10 million, with earnings equalling US $3 million. During 02 revenue will dramatically expand to at least US $36 million (taking into account 70% of the "Leduc" acquisition and 100% of KHL.V production). And earnings should equal US $10.7 million (values are based upon US $2.50 gas and US $20.00 WTI. In addition, earnings could dramatically increase from stated value because of certain tax brakes and acquisition costs.)
According to documents filed, "raw" net present reserve value will balloon from US $23.4 million (proven and 1/2 probable reserves discounted by 12%) to US $65 million. An additional "cherry-on-top" is the massive US $94 million tax carry forward (shields against tax on operating income for many, many years. Probably worth at least US $.26/share based upon 57 million shares fully diluted anticipated at closing. NOTE: The closing documents have been placed in escrow pending finalization and registration of financing, security and other documentation - this can be reviewed within the December 21, 2001 press release.)
Management also intends to apply for Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) listing soon after final papers are signed.
When we review earnings est. for 02; that is, US $10.7 million and convert this value to earnings/share, we calculate eps of US $.19. If we use the current share price of US $.40 and calculate an estimated PE for KHL.V based on conservative earnings of US $.19, we formulate a PE valuation of 2! This, of course, is ridiculous. We have decided to assign a reasonably conservative value of 8x to KHL.V and a resulting share price of US $1.52 emerges. This is 300% above the current share price. Obviously, if O & G dramatically moves higher during 02, earnings will move up dramatically, if additional drilling success exceeds expectations, earnings will expand. If other acquisitions are identified and closed, earnings will expand, and, finally, if greater awareness develops and management hits on all cylinders, then, of course, share appreciation could, should, and would move dramatically higher than we are currently estimating. We should also mention that management estimates cash flow from operations to exceed US $16 million or US $.28/sh, and based upon a current share price of US $.40, our P/CF calculates out to be 1.4. If we assign again a conservative P/CF of 6, then a resulting share price of US $1.68 emerges - a far cry from current US $.40.
In our opinion, KHL.V has a very competent and experience management, has been able to sniff out overlooked O & G properties that reward corporate growth strategies very handsomely; very attractive fundamentals, relatively obscure and unknown, planned listing on highly respected Canadian Stock Exchange and is in a relatively depressed industrial segment - all combined leads us to choose KHL.V as our microcap stock pick of the year 2002.
Corporate # 403-264-4073; IR # 877-253-1609.
We intend to monitor KHL.V for percentage gain performance within our oil and gas portfolio.
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|NEW BUY RECOMMENDATIONS|
|Westwood Corp. (WNMP.OTC BB - price $1.20)|
Westwood Corp. is a leading provider of marine control and power distribution systems and portable generators built to military specifications. The company's products can be found on every ship in today's US Navy active surface fleet and on certain ships in allied NATO fleets. The company's products also meet demanding standards for a dependable, rugged source of mobile electrical power for field troops of the U. S. Army, Air Force and Navy.
Due to tragic events of 9-11, military related public companies have been in the spotlight! We believe that WNMP deserves serious consideration for microcap investors looking for a value and growth stock rolled up into a single package that in our opinion would fit very well within a diverse calculated risk portfolio geared towards capital appreciation within six to 18 months.
During a recent conversation with management, revenue and earnings estimates were formulated for fiscal year March 02 and March 03. Management is comfortable with revenues of $50 to $55 million ending March 02, with net income/sh of at least .12 (based upon 10 million shares fully diluted). For fiscal 03, revenues are anticipated to exceed $62 million and net income/sh will equal .19/sh. At present, current funded backlog stands at $97 million, while total backlog equals $253 million.
In our opinion, WNMP should trade at a PE multiple of at least 15x. Management paints an impressive growth and earning scenario and a "war" premium should also be assigned - this microcap deserves to trade at much higher levels. If we use this PE valuation of 15x and calculate share price based upon .12 and .19, respectively, then our share price ranges from $1.80 to $2.85/sh during the next 6 - 12 months. We assume that management has been very conservative, so, in our opinion, net income/sh may be much better than currently stated. It is also possible that WNMP could be a takeover candidate within an industry segment that continues to consolidate. We are confident on the success of our military might and small microcaps that aid in the big picture of military superiority around the world. We intend to monitor WNMP for percentage gain performance.
Broker Contact: Mike Chesler - 800-227-2226
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