S. A. Advisory's Undervalued Hotline
1-900-990-0909 Ext. 192
Except for the employment numbers that are concocted by the men in green rubber suits located in sunny Washington, D.C. - it is hard for us to understand how the above average financial prophets really believe that the Fed will raise rates during July or August or for that matter, any time soon, when one considers that the CPI and PPI show little inflationary pressure - the commodity index is still heading south - the precious metal complex has taken a nap, and oil prices have subsided.
Historically, long rates should be three points above inflation. As inflation runs maybe at 2.5%, then the long bond should be at around 5.75% instead of 7%. The fed is not going to raise rates just as the no choice Presidential election is only four months away. Remember, Greenspan just got reappointed.
We anticipate that during the next few weeks stocks will head higher as interest rate fears subside. The tech stocks obviously were way overbought and now are way oversold. Due to end of quarter window dressing by the professionals, the techs were slaughtered even more so and should rebound sharply. We are not headed back into the stone age - the microchip economy will return soon. Investors should have ample exposure.
We still foresee a 6000 on the Dow by year end. If we stay at 7% on the long bond, then earnings alone must lead this market. One must be cautious and buy the out-of-favor stocks; i.e., select technology -- long terms this group is a winner. We would avoid all new issues, fad stocks with lofty PE's and any other high multiple PE situation.
We will continue to search out fundamentally low priced opportunities, turnarounds and out-of-favor industry segments.
Happy investing, Wm. Velmer
Super Fast Phone Service & 900#
- On or about May 11, 1996 we informed our 900# investors to sell total positions in American Electromedics at $1.44. We recommended AECO @ .28 during December, 1990 for an (an oldie but obviously a goodie) overall 414% gain.
- On June 18, 1996 we informed our Super Fast Phone service investors to purchase shares in American Education Corp. (AEDU) @ $1.125/share. See full recommendation.
- On June 19, 1996 we informed our 900# investors to purchase AEDU.
- On June 24, 1996 we informed our 900# investors to purchase shares in Integrated Silicon Solutions Inc. (ISSI) - a typical tech stock that has been thrown out with the baby. See recommendation #2.
NEW BUY RECOMMENDATION
AMERICAN EDUCATION CORP.
(AEDU - NASDAQ BB - $1.50)
NEW SOFTWARE SUITE - ACCELERATING REVENUE AND EARNINGS GROWTH - TAKING THE EDUCATIONAL SOFTWARE MARKET BY STORM - POSSIBLE TAKE-OVER CANDIDATE - LOOKS VERY ATTRACTIVE
On June 18th over Super Fast Phone subscribers were notified and urged to purchase shares in American Education Corp. @ $1.125/share. One June 19th our 900# investors were informed of this new recommendation by calling our 1-900-990-0909 Ext 192 Hotline.
American Education Corporation is one of the nation's oldest developers and publishers of educational software. The company's primary publication focus is on the K-12 and adult literacy market.
The company's current frontline school product family that is currently being marketed is called "A+dvanced Learning System". It is a comprehensive reading, writing, language arts, mathematics, science and social studies integrated curriculum solution for grades levels 1 - 9, high school remediation and adult literacy. A+LS provides for high-level class and student management functions that manage lesson delivery and sequencing while recording and reporting on student progress. During mid-1995 the company released A+SSESSI, a comprehensive student skill assessment and alignment program. A+SSESSI is designed to work directly with the A+LS product family, providing educators the ability to test for student subject area competency and assign the student automatically at the appropriate A+LS subject area lesson.
All core curriculum subjects for grades 1 - 9 and high school remediation are covered in depth in the 43 A+LS titles, which covers 2,200 lessons and 22,000 exercises.
The A+LS new, integrated side of educational software is available for Windows and Macintosh platforms.
At present AEDU has a 120 dealer distribution system that markets its product directly to school districts throughout the US.
During the third quarter of 1996 AEDU plans on introducing a new software product that will be marketed for the home market. AEDU also plans to begin to open channels to reach other world markets during 1997.
The company also plans to market and also derive revenues from its website on the Internet. The company's address is www.amered.com. The company is aggressively pursuing the development of commercial opportunities from this worldwide media channel.
NATURAL GAS DRILLING
We are continuing to be very active in Natural Gas drilling joint ventures. We will continue to search out programs that offer investors limited risk with huge upside potential.
Please review past results and also latest opportunities that we will be participating in.
For information concerning the NEW PROJECT, please call Chauncey at 1-800-746-4GAS. We believe that this project will go fast.
SELECT FINANCIAL DATA AEDU
YEAR ENDED DEC 31
1994A 1995A 1996 1QA 1996 2QE 1996 3QE 1996E 1997E 1998E
Revenues 660K 1.6mil 700k 990K 1.5mil 4.1mil 6.l mil 9.5mil
Net Income (Loss) (921K) (509k) 58k 1.80K 793K 1.2mil 2 mil 4mil
Net Income/sh (Loss) (.082) (.042) .004 .014 .06 .09 .15 .31
Shares outstanding 11.2mil 12.1mil 12.1mil 13.2mil 13.2mil 13.2mil 13.2mil 13.2mil
actual & estimated quarterly
revenue and earnings
Shareholders equity 1.4mil 3.4mil 7.4mil
A= actual; E= estimated; Q= quarterly.
Fully diluted shares outstanding during second quarter (June 30, 1996) and beyond are assuming the conversion of certain notes into common stock by June 30, 1996.
As of December 31, 1995, there were 8,570,000 shares issued and outstanding- of that 2,000,000 shares are free trading - the remaining are held by the inside and affiliates. At present there are some 4,000 shareholders. On a fully diluted basis the number of shares at December 31, 1995 was 12,181,661. Assuming that during 1996 additional notes or options were issued, our fully diluted shares outstanding will equal 13.2 million.
FUNDAMENTAL COMPARISON RELATED COMPANIES
Symbol Current Earning E Earnings E PE Est PE Est
Price for calendar for calendar for for
or fiscal 96 or fiscal 97 96 97
1. American Education Corp AEDU $1.125 .09 Dec .15 12.5x 7.5x
2. Soft Key International SKEY $20.375 1.75 Dec 2.20 11.6x 9.2x
3. Edmark Corp. EDMK $18.75 .50 June .67 36.7x 27.9x
4. Broderbund Software BROD $35.00 1.78 Aug 2.25 19.6x 15.5x
5. TRO Learning, Inc. TUTR $18.50 .90 Oct 1.25 20.5x 14.8x
6. 7th Level Inc. SEVL $12.00 .30 Dec 1.00 40x 12x
PE Average # 25.6 15.8x
#2 Soft Key International Inc. SKEY is a developer and publisher of consumer software for PC's, primarily produced on CD ROM. The company currently offers over 500 software titles in consumer-oriented categories, including education, life-style edutainment, reference and productivity.
#3 Edmark Corp. EDMK is a leading developer and publisher of educational software and material.
#4 Broderbund Software BROD develops, publishes and markets a diversified line of consumer software for uses in homes, schools and small businesses.
#5. TRO Learning, Inc. TUTR is a leading developer and marketer of microcomputer based interactive, self-paced instructional and educational systems used in a wide variety of applications and settings.
#6. 7th Level Inc. SEVL produces high quality entertainment and education interactive consumer software primarily for the CD-Rom medium in the Windows and Macintosh environments.
AMERICAN EDUCATION CORP
SHARE PRICE ESTIMATES WHEN COMPARED TO AEDU'S EARNING ESTIMATES FOR CALENDAR 96 & 97 AND HYPOTHETICAL FISCAL 97 USING SPECIFIC VARIABLES
S&P 500 Average Group PE Average Group PE AEDU'S Growth rate 96-
PE Est 96 Est 96 Est 97 98 of 50% - we will have
value 16x value 25.6x value 15.8x 1/2 of that value (PE) 25x
.09 EPS for 96 ending $1.44 $2.30 NM $2.25
.16 EPS for fiscal 97 $2.56 $3.69 $2.52 $4.00
July 1, 96 - June 30, 97
.15 EPS for 97 ending $2.40 NM $2.37 $3.75
NOTES: NM = Not meaningful
Average Group: the average PE valuation of our group of Educational Software companies, i.e., SKEY, EDMK, BROD, TUTR and SEVL
Growth Rate: It is standard procedure to assign a PE valuation that mirrors accelerating revenue growth of emerging growth stocks. AEDU conservatively is anticipated to growth by at least 50% annually during the next few years. Many would have it sport a PE of 50. We are more conservative and that is why we have assigned a value of 25.
Food for thought: all valuations from the chart above are estimation and assumptions - share price may vary dramatically. The remaining estimates have been formulated by management and they believe as well as prefer to present a conservative spin on the company's future.
Brief Fundamental Analysis
Upon review of Chart A we see a company that is growing very rapidly. AEDU will actually see a revenue increase of over 150% over last year and an estimated 900% increase in EPS.
If we examine 1997 and 1998, revenues continue to grow rapidly - that is, by at least 50%, with earnings growth by 85%. According to AEDU's management, these numbers are conservative and do not take in account any revenues derived from the home educational software segment.
When we examine Chart B, an excellent comparison of related companies indicate that AEDU could roughly trade at twice its recommended share price and be in line with the average PE multiple of the group of educational software companies mentioned. It should be noted that the PE multiple of this group has come down sharply during the last six months - the PE values were much loftier than current levels.
If we examine Chart C, investors should be able to conclude that AEDU has the potential to move to much higher levels depending upon the different scenarios that are discussed and formulated. If we average all the numbers listed in this chart, we calculate an average share valuation of $3.03 (this number reflects revenue and earning estimates on a conservative basis during the next couple of years.)
Any way you grade AEDU fundamentally with respect to sales and earnings, it looks and feels very attractive at the recommended price. An additional factor that supports a higher PE multiple results from the takeover potential. The group has been actively consolidating via mergers at extremely high multiples. Due to this development, AEDU could easily trade at the high end of Chart C sooner than later.
REASONS WHY WE GRADE AMERICAN EDUCATION CORP WITH AN A+
1. Revenue and earnings forecasts support much higher share valuations during the next 18 months - based upon EPS projection we foresee a low of $1.44 to a high of $4.00. ATTRACTIVELY BULLISH.
2. AEDU's superior educational software is moving to the head of the class with its unique learning series K-12. The competition is taking a hard look. The company continues to win bids over more well established names. BULLISH CLOUT.
3. Huge new title library (46), significant numbers of lessons (2,200) and huge volume of exercises (22,000). Has an alliance with Compaq Computers and Microsoft as a "Windows School Connection Partner". In addition to Windows, Window 95 and Window NT, AEDU also operates on Apple and Macintosh operating systems. COMPETITIVELY BULLISH.
4. The educational software industry during the past 18 months has been under an aggressive consolidation via mergers and acquisitions. The number of public stand alone educational software companies is shrinking fast. SKEY recently acquired The Learning Company at 50x projected 1996 earnings and around 9 times sales.
In addition (SKEY) recently acquired Compton's and Minnesota Education Computing. Davidson & Davidson was recently acquired as well as Sierra-on-line, Inc. by CUC International (CU-NYSE). This aggressive stance by the competition bodes well for AEDU as a takeover candidate. (If we base our acquisition price on the "The Learning Company", then AEDU could be worth $3 to $4.50 based upon our conservative 96 EPS estimate. This is an EXTREMELY BULLISH scenario that could unfold rapidly.
5. The market for educational software for schools is changing and expanding rapidly. According to SIMBA Information, expenditures for software in the K-12 grade market was estimated to be $420 million in 1994 and is anticipated to reach $950 million through 1998. In addition, the idiots in Washington have made available Federal Title 1 money to fund educa tional technology in middle and high schools for the first time. EXTREMELY BULLISH.
6. The home market for educational software is anticipated to reach $1.5 billion by the year 2,000. According to industry sources, the home market is growing at a rate of 35 - 40%/year. There are approximately 55 million US households with children, which fuels the industry for continued, as well as significant, growth. AEDU plans on entering this huge opportunity during the third quarter which began July 1, 1996. (Note: all revenue and earnings estimates from Chart A & B do not take into account any revenues derived from this exploding home education software segment. EXTREMELY BULLISH.
During 1997 AEDU intends to expand into International and emerging markets. FUTURE BULLISH DEVELOPMENT.
At present, AEDU has a viable Web site on the Internet and by year end anticipates forging an alliance with an Internet provider that can provide managed delivery of educational material to the nation's schools, educators and students. POTENTIALLY VERY BULLISH.
During the next 30 days all 43 titles plus 7 new titles, being jointly released with Humanities, Inc., will be converted from 3.5 diskette to CD-ROM. The adoption of CD-ROM technology and the decline in price for CD-ROM hardware will contribute to a growing demand for software in that format. The rising number of PC's equipped with CD-ROM, the increasing desire for CD-ROM by the consumer, gain in ease of use for CD-ROM, higher quality video and sound all bodes well for greater penetration, as well as marketability, for AEDU's home as well as school titles. VERY BULLISH.
When we take into account that BROD, EDMK, SKEY, as well as SEVL, as of May 5, 1996 were trading at an average 8x 1995 sales, it offers us additional ammunition that AEDU can support a loftier share valuation at 8x 1996 estimated sales (13 million fully diluted shares outstanding). AEDU could comfortable trade @ $2.75/share. More food for thought. BULLISH.
Management Team is highly qualified, dedicated, low salaries, low overhead and high stock ownership. VERY BULLISH.
We have a "hot" industry segment with huge growth. We have an in depmand, uniquely niched software product line that is receiving rave reviews (available upon request at 1-800-222-2811). A software segment that is in the thongs of an acquisition frenzy with purchases at high multiples. We have revenue growth anticipated at 150% this year over last and 50% thereafter during the next few years. We have attractive EPS and we have a qualified management team with a small and manageable stock float. What we really have here is a BIG WIN POTENTIAL. AN A+ BULLISH.
We like it, own it, believe in it and intend to monitor 10K in our 100K model portfolio and our 900# portfolio for percentage gain performance.
Broker Contact: Mike Chesler at 1-800-331-1355. Company: 1-800-222-2811.
RECOMMENDATIONS FROM OCT 23, 1995 TO JUNE 24, 1996 UP 56%
COMPANY NAME SYMBOL RECOMMENDED CURRENT STATUS
PRICE & DATE PRICE
IMAGING DIAGNOSTIC SYSTEMS IMDS .78 ON 10/23/95 4.25 445G%/H
SOLD HALF @ $3.00 ON 11/15/95
EMC CORP EMC $17.00 ON 19/29/95 18 5/8 9.5G/B
CTI GROUP INC. CTIG .41 ON 12/8/95 .625 52%G/B
SEQUOIA SYSTEMS SEQS $5.625 ON 12/10/95 3 3/8 33%L/BH
ASM PACIFIC TECH LTD .90 ON 12/10/95 .85 5.6L/B
VARITRONIX $1.65 ON 12/10/95 1.85 12%G/B
EURO DISNEY (FRANCE) .27 ON 12/10/95 .35 30%G/B
PLASMATHERM *PTIS $2.18 ON 12/18/95 5 1/8 135%G/H
QUANTUM *QNTM 16.25 ON 12/18/95 15 8.3%L/B
ELECTROCON INTERNATIONAL *EPLTF $2.37 ON 12/18/95 2 16%L/B
AFP IMAGING AFPC $1.44 ON 12/18/95 1 3/8 4.6%L/B
CENTERCORE *CCOR .18 ON 12/18/95 11/16 283%G/B
SALTON/MAXIM SALT $3.375 ON 2/26/96 5 48%G/HB
CALBE LINK INC. **CBLK $3.75 ON 2/29/96 4.75 26%G/B
ELECTROGLAS INC. EGLS $15.75 ON 4/2/96 14.25 9.5%L/B
ULTRATECH STEPPER INC. UTEK $18 ON 4/2/96 19 3/8 7.6%G/B
BEAR STEARNS JAPANESE BYEWS $6.50 ON 4/22/96 7.50 15%G/B
YEN PUT WARRANTS
AMERICAN EDUCATION CORP AEDU $1.125 ON 6/18/96 1.375 22%G/B
INTEGRATED SILICON SOLUTIONS ISSI $12.25 ON 6/24/96 12.25 0%/B
*EURO DISNEY 10-26-94 @ .12
PLASMATHERM 9-11-92 @ .59, S 1/2 @ $3.06 ON 2-14-94; 3 1/4 @ 7 3/16 ON 2-26-96
QUANTUM CORP 6-7-95 @ $22
ELECTROCON INTERNATIONAL 8-31-95 @ .95
CENTERCORE 5-2-93 @ .81 AND 2-15-92 @ 1
** CABLELINK INC DECLARED A 20% STOCK DIVIDEND ON OR ABOUT MAY 6, 1996. IS NOT INCLUDED IN PRICE.
(ISSI - NASDAQ - CURRENT PRICE $11.00)
On or about June 24, 1996 our 900# Hot Line was introduced to our recommendation of ISSI at $12.25. A disregarded tech stock that no one wants except SA Advisory. We will monitor this situation in our 900# portfolio for percentage gain performance.
The company designs, develops and markets high-performance SRAM and nonvolatile memory integrated circuits (FLASH, EPROM and EEPROM) to customers worldwide.
ISSI's products serve the diverse and rapidly growing markets for personal computers, networking, telecommunications, data communications, products and industrial instrumentation.
ISSI is an international firm with its headquarters in Sunnyvale, California. The company employs approximately 330 people worldwide. Its global infrastructure includes subsidiaries in Taiwan, Hong Kong and People's Republic of China.
Products and Applications:
High Performance SRAM Memory Products.
ISSI provides high performance SRAM (Static Random Access Memory) products to meet the demands of high-speed PC and data communications systems such as Intel's Pentium-class microprocessors, telecommunications, LAN's and instrumentation.
The company's current family of high-performance SRAMs include 3.3 volt Pentium-compatible products and 5 volt products for electronic systems requiring permanent storage of control programs and other data critical to the system. The company's FLASH and EPROM are very high speed devices and hold a leadership position in speed performance. Products in volume production include many standard SRAMs, EPROMs, EEPROMs, and 1Mbit FLASH. In January 1996, the company announced it had signed a license with Intel for Intel's Flash memory technology.
For the six months ending March 31, 1996, ISSI posted sales of $81.4 million and net income/share of .83. Due to pricing pressure and temporary slow down in demand, the third and fourth quarter will not mirror the first half. The company on June 25, 1996 announced that revenue and earnings for the third quarter will be in the range of $30 million and earnings of around .07. For the year ending September 30, 1996, total sales should equal around $140 million, and we anticipate earnings of at least $1.00 - much lower than the $1.79 reported last year. Last year at this time ISSI stock was trading at $73.00/share - a far cry from our recommended price of $12.00. We believe that this lull in the market place is only temporary and believe that ISSI has a bright future for those investors that can stomach purchasing a technology segment that is bleeding in the street. Remember, when things look the worst, opportunity is the greatest.
At present, the company has around $6.50/share in cash ($113 million) and a book value of around $8.65. At present the shares of ISSI are only trading slightly over stated book. Long term debt is only $30 million. The company is actively and aggressively spending heavily on R & D, which, of course, is the life blood for growing tech companies. All of ISSI's chips are manufactured by outside sources, which, of course, reduces overhead expense. This factor, in our opinion, adds to our long-term bullish attitude toward ISSI.
In reality, purchasing shares in ISSI at current levels is the poor man's way to play BNET, CSCO, IBM, INTC, SEG and USRX since these companies are all big buyers of ISSI's products. When the demand picks up for the group, it is obvious that demand for ISSI products will be proportional.
As mentioned earlier, when the blood runs red in the street and avoidance is approaching 100% and everyone believes that tech stocks will go the way of Dino, the dinosaur, one has to buy for the long term (Note: not all tech stock, but the quality ones; i.e. EGLS, UTEK, DEC, RDRT, QNTM and of course, ISSI).
We will monitor ISSI in our 900# portfolio for percentage gain performance.
Broker contact: 1-800-453-9408 (Greg Nelson); Corporate # 1-408-733-4774.with access times as fast as 10 nanoseconds and density levels ranging from 16Kbit to 1 megabit. ISSI has also developed synchronous SRAMs, including the 32K x 32 configuration, which is used in Pentium applications.
Nonvolatile Memory Products
The company also provides nonvolatile products, which allow memory to be retained when power is off. These products include FLASH memories, EPROMS (erasable programmable read only memories), and EEPROMS (electrically erasable programmable read only memori
Sad Snake Bits
We wish to dedicate this issue of SA Advisory to Mrs. H. Velmer, for without her guidance, S.A. Advisory would probably never have evolved as it has. May she rest in peace.
GLOBAL POSITIONS June 24, 1996
On February 26, 1996, 900# investors were notified to total position in Paine Webber currency WT (PWP.WS) @ $20.00 We intially recommended purchase @ $6.25 on 6-13-95 - our overall gain equalled 220%
COUNTRY COMPANY EXCHANGE YR PURCHASE CURRENT G OR STA-
&/OR SYMBOL RECOMMENDED PRICE PRICE L TUS
JAPAN HITACHI TOKYO 6-4-92 790 YEN 1030 30%G B
JAPAN NISSAN TOKYO 8-24-92 592 YEN 968 63%G B
MEXICO EMPRESSAS ICA NYSE (ICA) 4-6-92 $17 14 1/8 17%L B
MEXICO GRUPO SYNKO MEX (ADR) 4-23-91 $1.25 .18 86%L H
MEXICO CIFRA MEX (ADR) 7-27-91 $1.18 1.37 16%G B/H
ENGLAND LONRHO OTC (ADR) 11-27-92 $1.08 2.80 159%G H
ENGLAND DAWSON HOLDING LSE 8-23-93 $5.50 13.50 145%G H
PLC RULE 535SUB2
CANADA ARC INTERNATIONAL AMEX (ATV) 8-28-93 $1.44 3 3/8 134%G B
THAILAND SHINAWATRA THAI (ADR) 5-18-94 $12.25 10.50 16%L B
ENGLAND JEROME & SON LSE (ADR) 5-18-94 $1.00 1.12 12.5%G H
CANADA ARC INTERNATIONAL AMEX (ATV) 7-7-94 $3.125 3 3/8 8%G B
FRANCE EURODISNEY 2004 WARRANTS 10-26-94 $.12 .33 175%G B
ARGENTINA YPF SOCIEDAD NYSE (YPF) 3-8-95 $17.00 22 3/4 34%G B
MEXICO GRUPO MODELO MEX 3-18-95 $11.00 4 3/8 59%G B
HONG KONG ELECTROCON EPLTF 8-30-95 $.95 2.25 136%G B
FRANCE EURODISNEY 2004 WARRANTS 12-10-95 $.27 .33 22%G B
HONG KONG ASM PACIFIC TECH
TECHNOLOGY ORDINARY 12-10-95 $.90 .85 6%L B
HONG KONG VARITRONIX
INTERNATIONAL ORDINARY 12-10-95 $1.65 1.85 12%G B
JAPAN BEAR STEARNS J.
YEN PUT WT BYE.WS 4-22-96 $6.50 7.50 15%G B
B = BUY; H = HOLD; B/H = WEAKER BUY. OUR OVERALL GLOBAL EXPOSURE YIELDS A 50% GAIN -
Note: In order to stay in line with SEC guidelines, S.A. Advisory may buy, hold or sell positions in all securities recommended. The portfolios are all hypothetical in nature. It is likely that all recommendations were purchased prior to the recommendation. We may buy additional shares or may sell shares at any time. S.A. Advisory's portfolios are geared towards sophisticated investors aiming for long-term capital gains. Our trading habits may vary at our own discretion. Most recommendations are based upon strict fundamental analysis. Usually revenue and earnings EST for low priced common stocks result from management discussions.
In order to stay in line with SEC guidelines, S.A. Advisory may buy, hold or sell positions in all securities recommended. The portfolios are all hypothetical in nature. It is likely that all recommendations were purchased prior to the recommendation. We may buy additional shares or may sell shares at any time. S.A. Advisory's portfolios are geared towards sophisticated investors aiming for long-term capital gains. Our trading habits may vary at our own discretion. Most recommendations are based upon strict fundamental analysis. Usually revenue and earnings EST for low priced common stock result from management discussions.
S.A. Advisory Phone Service
This Service is a must for the serious investor! We communicate with the subscriber on a one-to-one basis. Quick Market Action, in many cases, secures extra profits or limits further loss. S.A. phone can be activated at any moment in time. We are personalized investor buy and sell communications. Phone Service investors usually receive special treatment concerning commissions and new issues. SEC # 801-16302-3 - Investment Advisor.
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