New Buy Recommendation
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On or about August 10, 1998, we released an e-mail informing our readers that in our opinion, the whole oil sector was extremely overlooked and seriously undervalued. We have decided to monitor a portfolio of related oil issues. It is, in our opinion, that our selections will deliver HUGE ga ins for the patient investor during the next 6 - 18 months. We have not been as bullish towards this group during the 15 years that S.A. Advisory has been in business. We intend to monitor this group for percentage gain performance.
The highest international rig count was during 1982 and was 1509. The lowest was recorded during August 1994 and that was 709 (this record keeping was dated back to 1975).
As of June 1998, Total International rigs - 790 - rig count does not include Russia and China.
As of August 14, 1998, North American rig count, which includes land, inland water and offshore, equals 1015. The value equals 799 U.S. rigs and 216 located within Canada. One year ago: 1405.
According to Oil and Gas Journal, the U.S. imports over 55% of total U.S. demand.
At present Natural Gas @$1.81/MCF, while crude/barrel equals $13.31.
The news looks negative.
Rig count closer to history lows than HIGHS. We assume normal to colder winter. Oil related issues fundamentally very sound compared to prior years. The last time crude reached levels of $13.50 was 1994. Crude prices stabilized very quickly and proceeded to advance to $20+ during early 1998. We also believe that the U.S. government may during September 1998 deploy an oil purchase for strategic reserves. Anticipate OPEC to continue to curtail production. In addition, the sentiment for oil explorers, drillers, deep drillers and oil service is as negative as it gets. The balance sheets are strong and debt levels are low. Most are trading between 60 - 80% below 52-week high and many are trading at a 4 to 5 year low. Should not forget the possibility of merger candidates within the group.
Most major brokerage firms like usual have had buy recommendations at the highs and sell recommendations at the recent lows.
Since our August 10, 1998 industry-wide recommendation on oils, we have seen an additional 10% drop in shares prices for many of our choices. We remain committed to the group long term.
As mentioned in our e-mail, we intend to monitor 1000 shares of each investment opportunity for percentage gain performance. Our initial value equals $261,680.00. (See page 3 for portfolio).
1. Other oil related issues that we find attractive at current levels and will also monitor as of August 18, 1998:
ESV - Ensco International - $12.
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