Power Systems Group Inc
Comparisons and Select Financial Data
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Within Box A we have formulated a varied group of high quality E &C companies, namely, FLR, GVA, JEC, CBI and FWC. Our main purpose is to show PE estimates for fiscal 99 and fiscal 00 (note: the only listed company used for fiscal 00 is EGPSF). The average PE for the group of 5 is 12.5, while our estimated value for EGPSF is 5. If EGPSF was to trade at a conservative PE valuation in line with our listed companies then the share price should be trading at about $4.00. What this estimate does not take into account is the rapid revenue growth that this company will be demonstrating during the next three years. In our opinion, EGPSF resembles a growth story on the launch pad.
When we review Box B, it is easy to conclude that EGPSF is estimated to growth by over 10 times its size during the next 30 months. Even though 01 estimates are a long way off from reality, one must not forget that these power barges are huge endeavors and takes time to finalize. If we look at earning estimates for fiscal 01 - the management believes that EGPSF can generate earnings of CDN $1.06 or about US $.75. Based upon our current share price of US $1.50, we calculate a PE of 2. If we were to assign a conservative PE valuation of 15 to EGPSF, our share price "powers" to $11.25!
Now, we do not assume that this will happen near term, but if EGPSF can meet or even exceed their revenue and earning estimates that is in our opinion EGPSF can reach these levels during the next few years.
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OVERVIEW Electric power sources are on or near the top of the wish list for many developing nations. Business, social and government leaders recognize that reliable sources of electricity are essential to a modern economy.
Without electricity, computers do not compute, mass transit systems cannot function, air conditioners do not enhance productivity, dryers do not dry, and traffic is snarled by a lack of control lights.
Unfortunately, though it is taken for granted by customers in industrial countries, electricity is in short supply in rapidly growing countries. The short supply often means rolling blackouts during the most productive time of the day.
Many developing areas, however, do not have the industrial capability or the infrastructure required to support the construction of central station power plants.
More importantly, growing economies do not have time to wait for the completion of a long construction project. They need power as rapidly as possible; it is a prerequisite for the rest of their development plans.
One common response to the need for a rapid installation of power generating capability is known as a power barge. An electric generator and its associated support systems are mounted on a barge in a shipyard, tested, and then delivered to the customer's site ready to be hooked to a transmission network.
Instead of time consuming site preparation, power barge construction uses shipbuilding techniques, high capacity cranes and support shops, and a crew of skilled workers. As long as the customer is near a body of water with a navigable connection to the supplier, the delivery and set up can be completed in a matter of months after the contract has been signed. Since 75 percent of the world's population is near the coast, the market potential is huge.
In recent years, contracts for such systems have been negotiated in the Caribbean, Southeast Asia, Central America, and the Indian subcontinent. At first, most of the contracts were won by bidders proposing barges with diesel generators, but over the last several years projects using gas turbines have been completed.
All power barge projects have certain inherent limitations. They must be protected from the effects of storms, they can consume valuable waterfront docking areas, and they can cost more than plants built on solid, but inexpensive land. Because of the space limitations of the barge, the designs are often compromises rather than being optimized for efficiency or ease of maintenance.
Fossil fueled power plants and power barges have additional disadvantages. Their fuel consumption requirements can add a significant burden to already strained transportation systems, their emissions in port areas can add to air and water pollution problems in densely populated areas, and their economic value can be quite vulnerable to unexpected variations in the cost of the high quality fuel that they require.
Due to project size and possible delays due to foreign country involvement, the estimated time period concerning project development may vary. The estimates within Box B should only be construed as management estimates based upon information available at the time of this published report.
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