S.A. Advisory E-Mail Update

S.A.Advisory
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
S.A.Advisory Newsletter

This newsletter is dated--June 22, 2004
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

We have not been paid by any of the listed investments within this on-line newsletter and alert!

If you do not want our material any-longer visit www.saadvisory.com/update and follow the listed directions.

OVERVIEW

DURING THE PAST 3-4 MONTHS THE MARKETS HAVE BEEN FLAT WITH A MORE OF A NEGATIVE ATTITUDE. SELECT INVESTMENT OPPS. HAVE DONE WELL BUT OVERALL IT HAS BEEN A DIFFICULT INVESTING ENVIRONMENT ESPECIALLY FOR THE TECHS. AS YOU KNOW IRAQ, OIL, INTEREST RATES, TERRORISM, ELECTION QUESTION AND INFLATION HAVE FILLED OUR PLATE WITH HUGE UNCERTAINTY AND NERVOUSNESS. WE HAVE ALWAYS BELIEVED IN BUYING STOCKS WHEN IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST UN-OPPORTUNE TIME! WE ACTUALLY THINK THAT GREATER EXPOSURE TO EQUITIES @ THIS TIME WILL RETURN ABOVE AVERAGE GAINS FOR THE REMAINING 6 MONTHS OF 2004. IN THE TECH SECTOR WE LIKE: NOK, AMAT, FLEX SANM, INTC, LU, SUNW, EMC, MOT AND TXN. MOST OF THESE ISSUES HAVE RETREATED 30-60% FROM THEIR RECENT HIGHS. MOST BELIEVE THAT THE TECH CYCLE IS OVER-WE OFCOURSE DISAGREE!

THIS LETTER WILL INCLUDE A NEW MICRO-CAP RECOMMENDATION:

WE WILL REVIEW OUR TOP 28 (%) GAINERS FROM 2003 AND SEE WHERE THEY STAND :

WE WILL CREATE A "NEW" MINI TECH PORTFOLIO AND MONITOR THE % GAIN PERFORMANCE OF THOSE STOCKS THAT ARE INCLUDED:

WE WILL REVIEW WITH OPINION OUR LAST 6 MONTHS OF "NEW" RECOMMENDATIONS:

OUR TOP 28 INVESTMENTS FROM 2003 YEAR-END. AS OF JUNE 22, 2004 WE WILL LIST THE CURRENT PRICE AND STATUS!

SYMBOL RECOM. PRICE CURRENT PRICE % GAIN STATUS
MCTL.OB .22 .82 272% H
AFPC.OB .11 1.60 1354% H
IECE.OB .48 .95 98% H
DHB 1.66 13.47 711% S 1/4
TARG.OB .15 .90 500% B/H
ENPT .80 2.04 155% B
AES 3.02 9.81 225% B/H
NITE 4.79 9.98 108% B
SANM 4.49 9.00 100% B
AES 3.02 9.81 225% B/H
WMB 3.58 12.00 235% S
VTSS 2.18 4.76 118% B/H
EEGL 1.04 2.20 111% B
LU 1.26 3.47 175% B
ETEC.OB .36 1.03 186% B
DYN 2.03 4.27 110% H
PDGE.OB .27 .80 196% B/H
NT 2.08 4.44 113% B
INTC 15.57 27.64 77% H
ELNK 5.45 10.54 93% B
SLR 2.99 5.72 91% B/H
GR 15.50 31.30 101% B/H
TXN 15.75 23.18 47% B/H
CSCO 13.09 23.42 79% H
TYC 14.75 31.91 116% B
MOT 8.16 17.34 112% B
EMC 7.51 11.33 50% B/H
PVN 6.49 14.96 130% S 1/4

NOTE The rest of the portfolio can be reviewed from the August and Oct 2003 email alert:

fdry and cc were removed from the 30 because they were sold.

STOCKS THAT WERE PURCHASED DURING 2004

SYMBOL RECOM. PRICE CURRENT PRICE % GAIN STATUS
PFE 34.90 35.43 2%G B
SBKYY.PK 26.50 29.30 11%G B
AFPC.OB .60 1.60 166%G B/H
this stock was our dick davis stock pick for 2004 (afpc.ob)
KSCI.PK 2.45 3.75 53%G B
TKE.TO 2.98 us 3.12 us 5%G B
RER.TO 4.81 us 5.61 us 16%G B
PEL.TO 1.92 us 2.02 us 5%G B
SEM.TO 4.32 us 4.88 us 13%G B
APOA.OB .135 .10 26%L B
         
         
         
STOCK RECCOMMENDED FROM OCT 20TH 2003 EMAIL ALERT
NWL 22.93 yield 3.62     23.18 1%G B
IMH 15.36 yield 12.74     20.33 32%G B
WPEC.OB .35 .30 14%L H

BOTH NWL & IMH IN OUR OPINION OFFER INVESTORS UPSIDE POTENTIAL AND ATTRACTIVE YIELDS ESP. IMH. WE ANTICIPATE THAT IMH WILL DECLARE A .65 DIVIDEND THIS WEEK. IF WE CAN GET SOME ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE FROM THE COMPANY THIS YIELD SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE- YIELDING INVESTORS A GREAT YIELD WITH CONTINUED CAPITAL GAIN APPRECIATION. WE BELIEVE THAT THE STREET DOES NOT UNDERSTAND IMH'S BUSINESS MODEL AND CONTINUES TO GROUP IT WITH ALL THE OTHER REITs.

New Micro-cap recommendation--Crown Craft, Inc.           CRWS.OB
Current price .65
Business: designs,markets & Distributes infant and juvenile consumer products. See recent 10K for complete details of product line:

Year End results: March 2004 March 2003
rev $86 mil $94.7 mil
income/sh
fully diluted
.14 .12
shares outstanding
fully diluted
22.3 mil 21.5 mil
Basic diluted 9.4 mil 9.4 mil

Actual PE based upon year-end numbers---4.6X

Actual PSR ""   ""           ""          ""       ---.166

Actual PSR minus LTD ( $28 million) """" ----.24

Currently trading @ 25% below stated Book

Employees--241

Product mix: They sell 36% to Toys R Us TOY
27% to Walmart WMT
.12% to target TGT

This company is very boring, but extremely cheap and undervalued based upon strong fundamentals. The PE, PSR, P/B, P/CF indicate very little down side risk @ current levels. If you review past years of operations you will see that this is a great economy play! During the boom of the late 90's rev and earning screamed, but during the recent recession-the business suffered. Upon review of the most recent years we can see a turn-around taking place in our economy and the same turn-around for this company. We also believe that this company could be a juicy takeover candidate. We also believe that CRWS.OB may outsource some of its clothing manufacturing to China, which ofcourse would and should increase the profits. The company sells to major retailers ( toy,wmt,tgt) and if their biz cooks so does CRWS.OB. If CRWS.OB was to trade @ a conservative PE of only 10X --then our valuation would $1.40 based upon actual numbers and a strong potential that earnings could expand rapidly within the next 6-9 months yielding much great earnings and expanding PE multiplies. Broker contact: Mike Chesler 1-800-991-7991

SYMBOL RECOM. PRICE earning est. for 04 & 05 STATUS
AMAT $18.12 .85 1.20 B
VSH $17.10 1.01 1.42 B
FLEX $15.00 .72 .94 B
NOK $14.09 .86 1.00 B

EVERYONE HATES THESE WORLDCLASS TECH STOCKS-DURING 2000 PE'S WERE EXPANDING NOW EVEN WITH A STRONG AND EXPANDING RECOVERY THE PE'S CONTINUE TO CONTRACT. ALL OF THE ABOVE INVESTMENTS LISTED ABOVE HAVE FALLEN 30- 50% FROM RECENT 52 WEEK HIGHS. ALL 4 OF THE ABOVE WOULD CREATE A VERY ATTRACTIVE BASKET OF TECH WITH LIMITED DOWNSIDE RISK AND APPEALING PE ESTIMATES.

YOURS TRULY, WILLIAM VELMER
EDITOR SINCE 1983

FOR PERSONAL BUY AND SELL RECOMMENDATIONS VIA PHONE CONVERSATION WITH YOURS TRULY AND BEFORE THE HERD HEARS-CALL 801-272-4761 FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT OUR PHONE PROGRAM FOR $700.00/YEAR.

Click here to go to the Email Archive


Newsletter | Mailing List Rental | Phone Service | Subscription | Email Archive | Home
Copyright © 2010 S.A. Advisory