Favorite Oil- Coastal Energy cen.to, ceo.l or cenjk.pk~ New oil recommendation Dragon Oil dgo.l or dragf.pk ~ see brief!
ASIA PACIFIC WIRE & CABLE (APWC)
I would rather be part of the 1% than the 99% cry babies. Obama created this class warfare during 2011!~
Are Americans really that stupid? Will the Idiots and Morons that stare endlessly at their cell phones really vote for this nightmare again? We already know that "Jack" cannot spell or do math! It is no wonder that Obama is our supreme leader! Obama's healthcare, over regulation, failed foreign policy ( just look at Iraq; we left a few days ago and they are already blowing themselves up!) gutting our Military, destroying NASA and refusing to shut the Southern border are only a few success stories of our 44th President of the USA! Obama has been talking about Iran's nuclear threat for 3 years now and he just spins around on his thumb! He hates our long term allies and degrades America whenever he has the chance. Just keep taxing the "rich"- they already pay 50% & carry the 50% that pay zero taxes! As of Jan 2013 everyone's taxes go up because of Obamacare and the expiration of the Bush's tax cuts! Obama is a liar! A military drone crashes in Iran- this poor excuse for a President offers Iran a cupcake with a cherry-on-top for the return of our property! I can barely look, watch or even listen to this loser anymore. I don't know that America can survive an additional 4 more years of big government spending, much higher taxes and an all out war on business. I am not part of the 1%, but want to think that I am closing in on that number. I am also not part of the 99% that want someone else to pay for their pathetic misdirected lives. I did not put a gun to your head and force you to buy that house, car or RV! I did not go to college for a degree in bird watching or envelope licking or work at a job twisting a bolt on a screw for 25 years. The government owes me nothing and I want nothing from them except to get out of my way! I am so sick of the loser herd blaming Wall Street, the Banks, Big Business and of course Big OIL! This President and the main stream media are successfully destroying this country. He talks about Energy Independence, but won't sign off on the Keystone Pipeline that would create "real" jobs and decreases our reliance on foreign oil! Instead he wants us all to drive around in those stupid electric lawn mower cars that have to be plugged in; and depend upon coal or natural gas to power them up. Wake up America! get off your stupid phone, stop posting on Facebook, turn-off American Idol and read something informative!
During the first 6 months of 2011 our stocks exploded upward; during the last 6 months many imploded because of Europe, Arab Spring, Japan's Nuclear meltdown, our S&P downgrade and the lack of any kind of DC leadership. As we approach the end of 2011 and welcome 2012 www.saadvisory.com investor's overall had a great year of returns! We have remained laser focused on Oil and our steadfast opinion has rewarded us with plenty! Our biggest winner was BEXP! We first recommended BEXP @ $3.95 during the summer of 2009 ( see July 19th email alert) and was recently bought out by Statoil For $36.50 in cash!~
Please review the portfolio of Oil recommendations from July 2009!
Our favorite #1 Oil recommendation remains Coastal Energy cen.to, ceo.l or cenjf.pk~currently around $15.00 ( first recommended last Dec 23rd 2010 @ $5.64 ( see email alert).
Our "new" Oil stock recommendation is Dragon Oil dgo.l or dragf.pk ~ around $7.35~ see brief.
Favorite non-oil remains APWC~ Treasure of Trap?~~ see bullish brief.
PORTFOLIO OF OIL STOCKS~JULY 2009- DEC 26TH 2012~
symbol initial price price status
cenjf.pk 5.64 14.96 B
favorite oil pick for 2012
mauxf.pk .70 .89 B
sdcjf.pk .16 .42 B
time to reload- see little downside risk @current levels.
qep 32.96 29.86 B
price contraction due to weak gas prices~still like long term
axas .96 3.36 B
another favorite- we see continued growth and share appreciation during 2012 and beyond- a great trader!
sd 5.23 sold 1/2 @ 11.27
recent price 8.57- great announcement a few day ago- game changer and rated with a B
ureyf.pk .25 .11 B
Russian oil that is rising from the dead and looks very attractive at current levels.
cmt.to .72 sold @ .12
erx 25.00 47.90 B
Oil ETF- Daily Energy Bull 3x - bullish hedge
cll.to .83 .76 H
bexp 3.95 36.50- stolen by Statoil almost 10x the investment! Got to love Bakken Oil!
useg 2.75 3.20 B
recent press puts in a bottom. The company has many irons in the flame. Large capex for 2012
kog 1.28 9.51 B
A growing monster in the Bakken- must be a core holding- company anticipates 30k boepd by the end of 2012- if they deliver this stock is $30 or bought out!
ssn .59 s 1/2 3.83 1.98 H
aez 6.44 bought out 7.53
bp 40.00 43.28 B
wres 3.33 3.13 B
very cheap and attractive at current levels
dej .30 .46 B
gmxr 5.37 1.29 S
total dog- maybe over sold for tax selling season- huge debt load concerns the street!--Better places for your money!
etkef.pk .18 .10 H
printing press time- has potential but lots of paper- Australian micro doing biz in the USA!
skwed 5.60 1.30 H
looked like a winning horse, but turned out to be a spotted dog- a merger and reverse
melef.pk 4.86 3.30 B
Canadian oil that has not rebounded yet~ luke warm!
sxprf.pk 5.95 bought out 6.25
bllxf.pk 5.60 4.78 B
Cardium Oil play + other exciting areas in Canada- we believe it is a takeover candidate sooner than later.
pbkef.pk 13.10 12.75 B
Great Canadian oil and gas producer with a tasty div, but looming debt conversion. Market has been concerned. Could easily be a take over candidate because of discounted value.
mhr 6.86 4.67 B
hes 68.74 57.00 B
cenjf.pk 10.55 14.96 B
built another position- largest holdings in the oil portfolio.
oas 24.39 29.48 B
another pure Bakken Play most likely will be grabbed by a major sooner than later
sd 6.92 8.57 B
kog 5.58 9.51 B
reminds me of bexp in the early days. As mentioned this a core holding in the bakken.
mhr 4.19 4.67 B
We really like management and believe that they can deliver- visit their website and review the presentations.
cenjf.pk 9.20 14.96 B
Continue to rate coastal energy as our Top Oil play in our Universe!
cpx 20.38 34.46 H
currently being bought out!
clr 49.88 69.09 B
We stole these share during the Sept 2011 melt down- another core Bakken holding
mhr 3.34 4.67 B
3rd recommendation during Sept 2011 meltdown.
dragf.pk 7.35 Buy see brief
Top Oil Stock for 2012~~~~Coastal Energy cenjf.pk, cen.to or ceo.l
We first recommended Coastal Energy around Dec 23rd 2010 @ $5.64 via our email alert~ production was around 10k bopd. In 1 years time Coastal's share price is up almost 200% and the game is only getting better with age!
For the newbie: visit www.coastalenergy.com and review the presentations, press and quarterly statements.
We are currently waiting for 11 wells to be brought on production that will bring us up to around 25k bopd ( as of a month ago we had production of around 17.5k bopd- 2500 of this number is boepd- from onshore production, while the balance is from offshore development).
We believe that we are the only "newsletter that follows cenjf.pk, but the list of brokerage firms continues to grow . The most current brokerage update comes from First Energy~ www.investorvillage.com/uploads/57938/files/facts-C-CEO_LN-2011-12-23.pdf
Most firms have Coastal as their TOP PICK and a target price ranging from $18.00- $26.00.
Personally, cenjf.pk reminds us of bexp in the early stages- they both never seem to miss a beat, don't hit dry holes, expand reserves and continues to act as the "piped piper" scooping up more and more believers and shareholders.
One element of Coastal Energy that qualifies all the estimates, positive reports by Brokerage firms and growing shareholder base is the massive as well as continual INSIDER BUYING!!!!
Everyone including the Insiders are falling over one another grabbing as many cheap shares as possible, which in turn has launched cenjf.pk's share price into new high territory as we close out 2011! With a less volatile market, higher oil prices because of growing tension in the Middle East and a firming economy in the US all lend to advances in Oil shares across the board.~
Coastal Energy is a compelling growth story that is characterized by rising production and cash flow in the near term, driven by relatively lower-risk drilling in the Gulf of Thailand. Even though we are trading almost 200% from the initial recommended price we believe that Coastal will double from current levels during 2012 and is also an attractive takeover candidate!
The current reserves are at least 120mmbbl and the STOOIP (oil in place - is the total hydrocarbon of an oil reservoir- do not confuse with oil reserves)is 447 mmbbl. Coastal has huge drilling possibilities with small drilling costs of $2.5 to $3. million/well. Rev for 2012 and 2013 respectively are estimated @ $651 and $781 million with net income/sh of $1.47 and $2.06 ( one of many estimates).
Again, we rate CENJF.PK with a strong BUY RATING for short and long term capital gains. Our target for 2012 is $25-$30.00/sh and the possibility of being bought out by an Asian Major Oil!
Dragon Oil dgo.l or dragf.pk $7.35
Dragon oil is engaged in the exploration,development and production primarily offshore in the Caspian Sea off the coast of Turkmenistan.
As of the Dec 31st 2010 Dragon Oil had proved and probable reserves of 639 million barrels and 1.6 trillion cubic ft of gas reserves. Presently, there are 516 million fully diluted shares outstanding-Emirates National Oil Company, limited (ENOC) owns 51.8% of Dragon Oil and recently announced that production had reached 70k bopd for the exit rate for 2011. The company also pays a dividend and will announce the final 2011 div during Feb. 2012 in addition to the .09 paid mid-year. Dragon Oil has ZERO debt and around $1.6 Billion in cash- $3.10 in cash/sh.
It is estimated that rev for 2011 will reach $1.1 Billion and net $1.19/sh. We believe that the final dividend will be plentiful for shareholders. Conservative rev and earning estimates for 2012 are $1.3 billion and $1.25/sh respectively. The current net asset value (nav) $9.92~ a far cry from the current share price of $7.35. Dragon's 1.6 tcf of gas could add as much as another $1.10 in net asset value. The recent announcement of 70k bopd exit rate for 2011 is a 23% over last year's exit for 2010.
Interesting note: A few years ago ENOC made a failed tender for the 49% it did not already own and for 2 years was not allowed to acquire the 49%~~well that 2 years is up as of Dec 31st 2011! food for thought!
Bottom-line: huge growth, no debt, huge cash hoard, @ $100.00/barrel Dragon Oil is printing profit! Either they will be taken over by ECON or someone else or start to build a more diverse Oil and Gas exploration and production company. Management is very strong ~ just look at the success!
Negative- very very close to Iran~ We believe some of the discount is because of the proximity of Turkmenistan. Tax selling and even ENOC may be playing games in order to "low ball a new tender offer". Regardless, Dragon Oil looks extremely cheap with very little downside risk at current depressed levels. We rate Dragon Oil with a Strong Buy Recommendation for near term capital appreciation and healthy div policy.
HEARD IT FIRST BY BEATING THE HERD!~~
FOR $75 WE WILL CALL YOU FIRST BEFORE THE HERD GETS THE EMAIL ALERT WITH OUR MOST CURRENT BUY RECOMMENDATION. FRONT RUNNING ONLY LEGAL! ACT TODAY~SENT US A CHECK TODAY AND WE WILL CALL DIRECTLY WITH OUR NEXT BUY RECOMMENDATION:
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TREASURE OR TRAP
current price $2.90
APWC is engaged in the manufacture & distribution of telecommunication & power cable and enameled wire products in the Asia Pacific region, primarily in Thailand, Singapore, Australia and China. APWC IS BASED IN TAIWAN~ IT IS NOT A CHINA BASED COMPANY! The company is fully reporting and Ernst & Young are their auditor ( top 3 auditor in the world). Currently there are 13.8 million fully diluted shares outstanding and the float is around 3 million.
During 2011 the company ran into a few problems that were not caused by management!
1. Nuclear meltdown in Japan had a far reaching effect on commerce in the Asian area of the world as well as worldwide.
2. Continued meltdown in Europe cause fear of economic contraction, which in turn collapsed commodity prices, such as copper from $4.30/lb to $3.20/lb.
3. The flight to the dollar caused currency losses.
4. The 100 year flooding in Thailand has disrupted APWC sub Charoong.
All the above events have taken a bite out of profitability during the 3rd quarter and potentially the 4th quarter ending in a few days.
The stock has already reacted and even over reacted to all the events during the past 6 months, in our opinion. We view APWC as a true investment treasure and not a "value trap" that some would assume that APWC is!
At present APWC has a stated book value of $16.20 if we include non- controlling interest or $11.20 based upon state book. The current cash equals $80 million or $5.80/sh. For the nine months ending Sept 30th 2011 rev exploded to $400 million vs $325 million. It is in our opinion, APWC will sport record revenue for 2011 of over $500 million. We continue to see robust growth for APWC during 2012 and beyond. Earnings dropped dramatically vs 2010, but we believe all were one time events and that during 2012 earnings will be in the range of $.70- $1.00/sh.
Asia is one of the only areas of the world that is still showing dramatic growth! As China continues to modernize~ copper usage for wire and cable will continue to drive sales for companies like APWC!
Bottom-line: We have discounted value, growth of 20%+, trading @ 80% below stated total book and less than 60% cash value, a PSR of .1, potential takeover candidate at current levels, all of Asia being lumped into one group because China's accounting issues have overly depressed quality and garbage alike and at current levels we see only upside potential and very limited downside risk!
We have been pounding the table about APWC for the past 4 years and have made some very successful trades, but the Home run has not yet been granted to us! We believe that we are right on this company and really don't care about the herd's grumbling. APWC is extremely cheap and fundamentally undervalued in a area of the world that is growing rapidly and one of these days APWC will either be bought out or finally become valued. Regardless, APWC is worth much more than $2.90!
We continue to rate APWC with a strong Buy Rating and it remains a favorite! Like it or not!